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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 6, 2013 5:00pm-5:31pm EST

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>> the scrooge that stole christmas, he couldn't resist getting that in. >> thanks so much for being here. it was a pleasure. speaking of which, fast money coming up in just a couple seconds, melissa lee, you may be talking to john. >> to tell us whether deck taper is on the table. he wrote in the wall street journal, we'll get his full take and analysis tonight on fast. >> we'll see if he can tell us about christmas, past, present and future. >> thanks, kelly. fast money starts now. live from the nasdaq markets in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. here's the lineup. taper trades, great jobs report. huge reaction in the markets. so with taper clearly on the table, should you stick with what's working? or is it time to look somewhere new? rally rejects, not every stock getting a pop today. is it time to buy the momentum sitting out today's rally. watch out for cleon, one commodity to a six month high today. we have the trade coming up. our traders are tim seymour,
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steven p. grass oh, guy adami. the top story, the job market rally. the s & p bouncing back. and the dow reclaiming 16,000 finishing up under 200 points, this after november's blowout jobs report. guy adami, were you surprised with this? >> yes. this is why having information, you can get in trouble. if i had known going in the print would be 7% with that number i would say the s & p would be down 25 handles today. that would have been my bet, clear would have been completely wrong. we talked about this. tim mentioned this earlier on the earlier show. good news is good news now. which is remarkable, because i think if it was a bad number, the market probably would have reacted the same way. >> this might be a turning point. this may be overstating it. it is interesting, today it seemed the markets accepted that taper does not equal tightening. >> why can't it just be everything is trumped by year end? why can't it just be that? >> seasonality. >> seasonality of it.
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>> because where was year end two days ago when everybody was crying doom and gloom. >> for what, .3% of the s & p. nobody is selling into this. you get .3%, a half percentage point off the s & p cash. everybody gets excited. shorts get excited. >> i agree, what happened before today was not a big deal. but you have to say, that there was a reaction today different than just oh, wow, it's year end, something is out of the way. >> what was different? >> i think what you got out of the way, it's what you're talking about. markets like certainty. i actually think markets are going to rejoice on the taper. >> so you think taper is now in the bag, so therefore the markets can rally off that. that's your premise. >> look, when the fed has basically indicated to stop buying assets they need the unemployment rate at 7%, ultimately if you get the fed at 6.5% they worry about hiking rates. we'll talk about that. but what i'm saying for markets, you're out of place, where people needed a place to understand where they can take
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risk again, i think the fed finally has learned how to control the psyche of the market f. you look where we were in september, the market took rates all the way near 3% on data nowhere near as good as the data in the last three weeks, we had great data here and around the world. look where rates, bonds rallied today, equities rallied. two days ago they both sold off on the same concept. >> there you go. listen, you talk about that 3% on the ten year, i think once they taper, i think you may get to 3.5 quickly. then we start to see how equities really act in that environment, because these are companies, now that have been borrowing, we know why these equities have appreciated. we understand the multiple come protection. when you think about consumer staples, they don't really have a whole heck of a lot of growth. proctor & gamble trading 18 times next year's earnings expected to grow eight or nine percent. if we get this taper and see rates spike, that's when we will feel it. >> let's talk about what we saw
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move in today's rally. it was a broad based rally, except for these momentum names, these momentum names did not participate. we're talking solar stocks, 3-d printing and apple. apple was a laggard today. >> i didn't think it would get through 550. we said yesterday, when it printed up the 575, 580 level, that was another number we expect to pull back to 550. we had the conversation last night. i'm not making a big move out of the apple deal today. but i think we need to retest that 550 level we exploded $30 off of the other day. >> we talked about last night. to me there was people in the know here. this is a company, largest market cap company in the world in the last ten trading days gained 10%, that's $50 billion in market cap. do you know how few companies in the world have $50 billion market caps? people knew it and sold on the news. >> a lot of momentum names, look at 3-d printing, up 16%. from november basically 19th. so a lot have run up, guys are trying to make it where the market -- >> the point is, is there a
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rotation going on? >> people are picking stocks, apple was a stock -- >> big gainers. >> but you're asking me why apple was not performing today. people are responding to the market today. materials, emerging markets outperformed these things under the cloud of the fed. apple is a story stock. there is reasons it's been rallying over three weeks. taking profits here, 50 billion in market cap is impressive. only apple can pull that off. >> let's get to the taper. 203,000, that's the number of jobs added in november. big question of course on the table, could we see taper in the next two weeks? joining us on fast line, chief economic correspondent for the wall street journal, jon, great to speak with you. >> melissa, thanks for having me. >> you wrote earlier, that you believe that the fed will in fact debate taper at the december meeting. >> yes. >> what's the probability they will pull the trigger at that meeting? >> well, i'm not going to give you a probability. because i don't know one. but you know, you preceded this by saying, could they do it in the next few weeks?
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i would say yes. it's on the table. the economy looks in much better shape today than it did in september, when they decided not to do it. and you know, so the door is open for them to act. it could wait until january, but this is basically the green light, that they have been looking for to start pulling back, and frankly, i think they have to be breathing a sigh of relief, because you know, the alternative to pulling back, because we have a stronger economy, was pulling back, because the costs started to exceed benefits, they didn't want to number that position, so i think they are happy over there today. >> from ben bernanke, do you think he wants to force janet yellen's hand starting tapering in december? >> no. they are working closely together, they have been the last three years. and i think no one on the fomc wants to be in position, where they are taking -- they are
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making a move today, that they are going to regret in three months or janet will regret. so i think you should feel comfortable, that whatever they do at this december meeting, it's a decision that bernanke and yellen agree on. >> but you say sigh of relief. i think the fed is in a tough spot. you wouldn't put these words out there. but i'll say, i think they need to regain credibility. and i think if you look where we are now at the unemployment rate, this is a level they would stop buying assets at one point. there's been questions about whether they will lower these thresholds. and 6.5 maybe down to 6 when they tighten rates again. we're not going to tighten rates. but isn't the fed in a tough space? things are working out. but you have a budget deal happening, labor market looking stronger, and these guys, if they don't move, i think have a huge credibility problem. >> well, you know, the credibility problem they had on that 7%, i mean, i think the damage to that was done in
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september, when -- so go back to june, in june they said they put -- they threw the 7% number out there. in september, bernanke had a press conference, he walked away from it. i think that damage was already done. the unemployment rate is falling for a lot of reasons, that nobody is happy about. people are leaving the labor force. but what they have here right now is a story of, you know, forecasts holding up for 2014. you know, they -- it looks like the fiscal head winds are starting -- will start to recede next year. so they can credibly say they expect to get more growth. and the payroll number, we're averaging 200,000 a month, a few months ago it looked like the 150 range. so you know, they have a story that everybody can feel comfortable with about gradually pulling back on this. >> jon, good to speak with you. have a great weekend. chief economics reporter for the wall street journal. so let's get the taper tray,
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since taper is clearly on the table according to the wall street journal. dan, let's go with you. you're in the don't fight the fed camp. >> by the same token, to me i would rather go for cyclicals, if it means we're returning to some growth. i know people are keogh the gdp report and getting excited. i'm less optimistic but i stay away from the staples, that saw that margin expansion and won't see growth and got expensive. i'd be more you saw industrials act well today. i think that makes sense. >> jim cramer mentioned today, he talked about some of the insurers, we talked about it days ago, i think the insurers are a place to go, for a lot of reasons, i think this is just one more reason, there are other names out there as well. >> unmistakable the outperformance by things that have been underperforming, emerging markets, which i'm not going to tell you are a straight ahead buy. but there are places to buy. we talked about this on the closing bell, there are places i
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think you don't want to be in emerging markets that have issues, that might get worse as rates go higher, places like mexico, the eww, or places like south korea, ewy, these are etfs, you have industrial growth or pegged to the u.s. economy in mexico, or you may have currency that will be strengthening. that's how you want to play this. >> i think you stick with what's been working. these are storied stocks. yahoo has been working, i think that moves to the middle 40s going into ali baba, google is working. they have bullish reasons why you should buy google. twitter is actually turned around right now for me. >> does it concern you we were talking about these momentum names or stocks that have done well recently that didn't participate in this rally, are you concerned even if the market goes up, these names that have seen pretty big gains this year won't participate? >> no, i think that specifically, yahoo, it's that stake in ali baba why it will participate, why it has no choice but to participate. and google is just -- it has so much stuff going for it.
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you tube is becoming something like when you google something now you you tube it. >> that's a great question. i think you will see a move out of more speculative names into things like general motors that are breaking out and are very cheap and have really good growth prospects in improving global economy. >> all right. one analyst says, pcs aren't dead yet. he has one stock you should buy. we'll get the details after the break. and winter storm cleon. freeze your weekend plans. is there a way to trade this nasty weather. much more fast straight ahead. that's correct. cause i'm really nervous about getting trapped. why's that? uh, mark? go get help! i have my reasons. look, you don't have to feel trapped with our raise your rate cd. if our rate on this cd goes up, yours can too. oh that sounds nice.
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♪ gotcha. >> what album is that off of? it's a really great zep album. if you have the album cover. >> the brown paper bag. >> if you lick it, it turns colors. >> you licked it? >> just saying. it's a long time ago.
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>> today's top trades. intel getting upgrade, keeping price targets steady, 28 bucks a share. there is more evidence corporate pc demand has stabilized. buying this? >> the only thing i don't agree with this stock, they should have raised the price target, if they believed this call that much. it's a little bit of playing stock market. intel has underperformed for years. i think you have to wait until the stock closes above 26 to get excited. that's where it breaks out. here i think you're flipping a coin. >> let's get to retail. dan looking at a standout in the retail sector which was weak today. >> it was weak. 4% off the all time highs it made last week. but you know, macy's had one of the most fantastic quarters of all retailers that reported. and the stock broke out, like i said, to new all times after the q-3 report, trigger today, 10,000 of the january 55 calls, paying 51 cents, that was out right, it was to open. that trade making a bullish bet in the next month. that stock will be up 8% or
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higher to break even on that. so to me, i think if you want to play this one, i don't know if you have to play the calls, use 50 the breakout level as your stop. >> seasonally according to history, we have seen the peak for retailers. >> you have extreme competition, we talked about the pressure on margins, we're going to talk about in the pops and drops, gap is something that is having a difficult time. i don't see why you need to go in here at this point, especially seasonally with the margin these guys see and the run they had. i'll sit this one out. >> let's get to winter storm cleon. it looks like the next storm will bring more snow, sleet, freezing rain this weekend. i don't know what's up with that name, cleon. >> the mets have an outfielder named cleon jones who got in trouble in the '70s. >> cleon jones. mets outfielder? >> there he is. >> put it this way, if the vans rocking don't come knocking.
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>> i thought of cling-on. grasso. >> the way to play nat gas, it's usually leading. you want to sell nat gas. you can get out of a lot of coal longs, they are moving in tandem, it's ripe for a sell. >> yeah. guy. >> for whatever reason apache doesn't want through this, every time the trade is up there, it fails. you're in this range. you have to wait for it to get back down to 86 if you want back in. that's been the best trading stock in the space. again, that's where you -- >> can we get cleon on the line? >> we would like ow the show. >> it would be awesome. we are covering all the day's big movers from a roughed up retailer to social media that is anything but a weak link, a
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texan town gets in the holiday spirit using porta potties. thrusters at 30%! i can't get her to warp. losing thrusters. i need more power. give me more power! [ mainframe ] located. ge deep-sea fuel technology. a 50,000-pound, ingeniously wired machine that optimizes raw data to help safely discover and maximize resources in extreme conditions. our current situation seems rather extreme. why can't we maximize our... ready. ♪ brilliant. let's get out of here. warp speed.
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♪ guy's favorite song. welcome back. if you missed today's top moments here's a rapid-fire recap in executive edge. >> the job rate, it was 203,000 jobs, 203,000 jobs, the unemployment rate dropping to 7%, that is a huge surprise. >> this is not one growth rate. it's a very high growth rate in the top half of the economy and a low growth rate in the bottom
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half of the economy. we're experiencing asymmetric recovery. the people in the bottom are getting hammered and not getting better. >> my forecast for 2014 remains pretty close to 3%. i think that's where we'll be next year. that's a pretty healthy pace of growth. it's not booming by any stretch of the imagination, but it's a pretty healthy pace. what happens on a quarter to quarter basis? it's hard to predict. because they are volatile. >> if you look over the last two years, most of the expansion has been multiple expansion in the equity markets, so the equity market is looking for revenue growth on the top line basis. and if it sees growth it will make a move higher. top line growth has to drive the next wave in of price appreciation. >> you know, last night, ges ceo said that a 3% growth, a lot of the economy's problems are growth. >> he's watching right now. >> he's watching now. watching now.
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>> he's probably -- he's probably right. and that's -- we talked about it last night. so half of that gdp was inventory, right? so if you have the demand for it, that's a huge number, and if you have the demand and you get north of 3%. i thought the best comment out of that was the fact that we now need revenue growth and eps growth. >> last time we had 3% gdp the s & p was at 1200, i guess at some point, i would just have to argue here, how much more can equities appreciate, especially when you get that sort of growth again with higher rates? >> i think we have a goldilocks between ism and pmis and where you have inflation, this is a big gap, i think you go with it. >> time for pops and drops. big movers of the day. drop here for jcpenney. >> talked about it the other day. we said be careful here. probably going to trade down 8 bucks. you had all the news, we talked about it yesterday during the show. i don't think you can buy it here. you have to wait for the flush. you didn't get it today in terms of volume. >> linked in.
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a pop moved 3%. >> upgraded the stock today. they think a china rollout is imminent. it looks like you can make a run back to previous highs, which is 8% higher from current levels. >> drop for the gap. 2%. tim. >> ultimately, if you look where these guys are, and the growth they announced, they actually beat, but where you look where they go, people don't expect it, comps for this company look difficult. competitive landscape looks difficult. there is no reason to jump and buy this company going into a season where everything we can tell is not going to be stellar, you stay on the sidelines, i think this is what we said. >> pop here for google, actually new all time high in today's session up 1%. that all time high 1069.83. >> google is my favorite stock. google is my everything stock. i find myself in the uncomfortable spot of not owning -- it's my girl. it's my girl. it surrounds the trade. and i find myself in the uncomfortable spot not owning the name i sold it at 1021 on
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that enormous pop from sub900. >> you don't own your everything stop? >> i don't. i feel like i'm cheating on it. i'm waiting for a little commitment. >> zero commitment. >> i know. hope my wife isn't watching. >> me too. >> port a potties. a pop. workers in east texas have yuletide here building a christmas tree out of port a potties. it was no game of thrones. construction involves stacking 40 toilets with the best seat reserve. >> they are flushed with cash. >> one of the worst experiences of my life. >> happened in a port a potty? >> without question. i won't get into it. >> did you fall in? >> the things that you see. you wonder where it comes from. it's like alien stuff. >> where what comes from? >> the stuff inside the port a potty. >> guy doesn't have working
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plumbing in his house. >> you are the guy that gets tipped inside the port a potty. >> you're such a jerk. you're the type of guy that would do that. you're a bully. bullying should not be tolerated. >> don't use the b word on me. >> just did. >> in serious news, can we talk google for a second. >> just did. >> i know. but he doesn't own it. would you buy it now? >> i'm waiting for a pullback. i'm going to get forced into buying it. this is 25 times earnings, 26 times earnings, getting 20% growth, these guys will err to the upside. you stay in this name and don't overtrade it. >> final trade time. go around the horn. >> go eww and etf. >> comcast. i think true winners in all this activity that's rumored to be around. >> i'm playing for a breakout in the new year on calls.
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>> mylanlabs. love that. >> that does it for us. i'll see you back here on monday at 5:00. don't go anywhere, options action begins right after this break. have a great weekend. [ male announcer ] here's a question for you:
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this is options action, tonight -- >> do you understand the words that are coming out of my mouth? >> wlnt it comes to the bond market and the fed. we'll tell you why the markets got the taper wrong. and why bonds could be a better bet than stocks. plus, double down. stocks are falling. but casino names are hitting the jackpot. why the winning streak is just starting with a special report. and trouble at home. >> i just want to smash your face in. >> not that kind of trouble. we'll tell you why home depot's recent weakness could spell trouble for stocks. the action starts right now.

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